Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector is facing fresh tension as Dangote Refinery, Aiteo, and AA Rano have increased petrol depot prices to N823 per litre, up from N821, in response to a surge in global crude oil prices.
The adjustment came after international oil benchmarks rose to $67 per barrel, up from $65 over the weekend. While the increase appears marginal, analysts warn it could trigger upward adjustments in pump prices if the trend persists.
Concerns Over Fuel Affordability
According to findings, the three operators made the price adjustment on Sunday, August 24, 2025, reflecting ongoing competition in Nigeria’s deregulated petroleum market.
So far, pump prices at filling stations remain unchanged. However, energy analysts predict that retailers may adjust prices in the coming days.
“Petrol prices in a deregulated market are driven by market forces. Changes can happen within hours, depending on global crude prices, geopolitical tensions, and supply dynamics,” said financial analyst Osas Igho.
Similarly, Olajide Jeremiah, CEO of Petroleumprice.ng, noted that frequent price shifts were inevitable, adding:
“We expect more adjustments in coming weeks. Eventually, the changes at the depots will reflect at the pumps.”
Marketers Demand Refinery Privatisation
The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) has once again called for the full privatisation of government-owned refineries, stressing the need for stable domestic supply.
“Privatisation that involves grassroots stakeholders such as PETROAN and MEMAN is the sustainable solution to stabilising the market,” said PETROAN President, Billy Gillis-Harry.
Dangote Refinery’s Expansion Plans
Meanwhile, the Dangote Refinery has concluded plans to expand its refining capacity from 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 700,000 bpd. Current operations already run at 610,000 bpd, with significant impact on both Nigeria’s domestic supply and international petroleum trade flows.
The refinery has reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imports, while also affecting the European gasoline market. According to OPEC, Dangote’s exports are reshaping global trade flows, forcing European suppliers to adjust inventory and seek alternative markets.
Hope for Cheaper Fuel Supply
Despite the recent hike, optimism remains that Nigerians may soon enjoy a more direct and affordable fuel supply. The refinery has already registered independent marketers for direct product delivery, cutting out intermediaries.
In June, Dangote also announced plans to deploy 4,000 CNG-powered tankers, further supporting Nigeria’s energy transition and reducing logistics costs.
With depot prices rising, Nigerians brace for potential pump price adjustments. Still, industry stakeholders believe that the Dangote Refinery’s growing capacity could eventually stabilise supply and bring relief to consumers.
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